Robert Rapier is viewed as a relentless foe by the ethanol industry, but I don't see him that way. His analysis of the business is detailed and well cited; if this displeases those involved the problem lies in the fundamentals, not in the fact that he takes the time to analyze the economics of the fuel.
Robert recently came across with a very well researched post over at The Oil Drum and it deserves a read by anyone interested in the agriculture or energy markets.
Since Peak Oil Day (May 21, 2008), when the genie's (= Peak Oil) presence outside of the lamp was officially acknowledged by The Wall Street Journal, among other very establishment business media entities, the U.S. public has shown that it is also increasingly "getting it". Vehicle miles traveled is down, SUV sales are down, small car (which get better mileage than big cars) sales are up, to name just a few examples. The frown on people's faces as they gas up their vehicles is becoming quite noticeable.
Ethanol as we currently do it isn't terribly efficient: put a barrel of oil in and get one and a quarter barrels out. It is more correctly a derivative fuel rather than any sort of "alternative".
There have been food riots in Haiti, Egypt, Kuwait, Pakistan, India, and there are just the ones I recall off the top of my head. The European powers already have populations that are concerned about palm oil plantation deforestation killing of orangutans and with it starting to affect people in places where we can't stand any more trouble ... well ... look beneath the fold.
When discussing financing of pending renewable energy projects I often make reference to the crash of 2008 and people give me a funny look. NBBooks over at The European Tribune has summed it up nicely in this recent posting. I've changed the format a bit and taken some small liberties with the original text to make it more readable, then I'll expand upon what it means for renewable energy projects.
This is an extremely unpopular topic here in Iowa, but I think the ethanol business may very well get whacked at the federal level in the name of global food security. Wheat prices have tripled and other cereal prices have doubled since 2000. If the impoverished masses in the Middle East are priced out of the food market we could plant corn from coast to coast on every patch of soil available and not begin to replace the liquid fuel loss that would ensue should that region fall into chaos.
The Oil Drum has recently carried two articles with detailed analysis of this situation. While both are weighty reads I feel they're a gateway to understand the global food stress our biofuels push is causing.
I found this little gem in the February 26th Debt Rattle over at The Automatic Earth. Today its ethanol plants being blocked but don't imagine wind, solar, and biomass are immune. The nature of financing is changing ... for everyone.
